by John Galt August 5, 2019 05:00 ET
To be quite honest, I like President Donald J. Trump’s approach to the Presidency in many ways. However, I fear some of his tactics and personality traits are putting us on the road to disaster. His history of “getting going” when the going gets tough is not an attribute I would rate as a premium optimal outcome for our society. After all, there is this as evidence, among a lot more:
Thus as I discussed in a previous article about the fork in the road, there is a dark, dire series of outcomes which are both realistic and believe it or not possible between now and the end of 2019. Buckle up as none are predictions but some I would rate as higher probability events over others.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards attack a United States naval vessel or ship under protection of the U.S. Navy in the Straits of Hormuz. Without a doubt this will require President Trump to abandon any charade of negotiation and acquiesce to an attack on the Iranian naval facilities killing hundreds and sinking a large majority of their vessels. The risk is that Russian personnel are killed also while providing “training” at any facility. West Texas Intermediate oil prices will almost certainly top $75 per barrel within hours of the news.
- Hong Kong decouples from the U.S. Dollar and adopts the Chinese Renminbi immediately followed by the People’s Liberation Army occupying and terminating all protests and the current structure of Hong Kong as an independent entity within the People’s Republic of China.
- Global warming is once and for all disproved and dismissed by serious scientists. Despite the stupidity of some groups claiming that the sun is overheating the earth’s climate, the data from the Parker Solar Probe and viable measurements of sunspot activity and related solar heat output reveal that the Earth is potentially entering into a period of solar cooling. This revelation shocks the world as agricultural output is projected to plunge by 40% to 50% in many of the world’s breadbaskets as well as northern regions like Alaska becoming almost inhabitable as the highest annual temperatures may average only 30 degrees Fahrenheit. The initials GSM(Grand Solar Minimum)become part of the modern lingo. Agriculture futures soar in price.
- The instability in the Donbas region of the Ukraine plus provocations by the Georgian government lead to an autumn surprise of hostilities initiated by Russia. Within a few weeks the Republic of Georgia is occupied and on the western side, the Kiev government sues for peace after NATO is once again proven to be a paper tiger by advocating negotiation over direct action. During the settlement, Russia occupies Odessa and seals the Ukraine’s fate as Trump’s foreign policy hawks are silenced do problems elsewhere in the world.
- The Federal Reserve looks at the economic data, as bogus as much of it is, and determines there is no need for a rate cut in September. As a result them markets are thrown into turmoil. Then after trying to jawbone the markets in October without a rate cut, the resulting market crash causes an emergency cut towards the end of the month of 50 basis points, outside of the normal meeting schedule. The U.S. 10 year yield falls below the 1.40% level in less than 60 days after the proverbial Trump Stock Market Crash. The panic causes the Federal Reserve to re-initiate Quantitative Easing by year end, adding further instability to world markets. German 10 year Bund yields crash below -0.75%.
- The United Kingdom has a hard Brexit causing the Euro to crash to parity with the U.S. Dollar and the Pound Sterling to test the parity levels before soaring back above 1.20.
- North Korea successfully launches a new ICBM which lands between Hawaii and California causing panic within the U.S. defense community. All talks are broken off and President Trump publicly entertains a naval blockade of North Korea.
- An African migrant is discovered to have a confirmed case of Ebola inside of a refugee camp in Northern Mexico. The rumors spread about a massive outbreak bringing commerce and tourism to a standstill.
- India and Pakistan go into another ground war over Jammu and Kashmir.
- Angela Merkel passes away in office causing a major disruption within the European Union. The Euro crashes below parity with the U.S. Dollar.
- President Trump announces that since the Chinese government refuses to negotiate in good faith after the 10% tariffs go into effect on September 1st, 25% tariffs will be implemented on November 1st. China retaliates by cutting off all talks and in a surprise move, announces the setting of the overseas Yuan rate at 7.50 per the U.S. Dollar.
- After the stock market crash and months of frenetic activity, President Donald Trump goes on to nationwide television to announce that due to a previous undisclosed health ailment, he can not run for President in 2020 and will encourage Americans to support Vice President Pence. World markets crash over 20% more as a result. The U.S. Dollar index (DXY common) crashes from 92 to 80 in less than a week.
While this might sound like good old fashioned doomer porn, the truth is any one or combination of several of these possible outcomes could indeed change our society forever.
Or does the phrase “President Warren” not terrify my readers enough?